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Briefing 79 March 19, 2026 Los Angeles, California

What’s Inside

    • Route Expansions: British Airways returns to Melbourne while Volotea and Frontier launch new seasonal and year-round links.
    • Fleet Shifts: Atlas Air breaks Boeing tradition with a massive A350F order; AirBaltic records the first A220 hull loss.
    • Industry Mergers: Allegiant and Sun Country clear DOJ antitrust hurdles, moving toward a $1.5 billion leisure powerhouse.
    • Operational Alerts: TSA sick calls spike amid government funding disputes, causing significant delays at ATL, HOU, and MSY.
    • Global Disruptions: Middle East conflict forces SAS and AirBaltic to adjust schedules as jet fuel prices surge in Europe.
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New and Proposed Routes

Volotea (V7) will add 2x weekly flights from Porto, Portugal (OPO) to Granada, Spain (GRX) on November 3.

Aeroitalia (XZ) summer seasonal routes from Salerno, Italy (QSR) starting July, including new links to Ibiza (IBZ) and Mykonos (JMK).

British Airways (BA) will commence year-round daily service from London Heathrow (LHR) to Melbourne (MEL) via Kuala Lumpur (KUL) on January 9, 2027. This same-aircraft route, last flown 20 years ago, will be operated by Boeing 787-9 equipment.

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IATA Summer 2026 Season The upcoming scheduling season runs from March 29 through October 25.


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Fleet Intelligence

LATEST AIRCRAFT DELIVERIES

🇦🇪 A6-XWN, an Airbus A350-1041, was delivered to Etihad Airways (EY) on March 18.

🇹🇼 B-58552, an Airbus A350-1041, was delivered to STARLUX Airlines (JX) on March 17.

🇩🇪 D-ABPI, a Boeing 787-9, was delivered to Lufthansa (LH) on March 16.

🇩🇪 D-AIWH, an Airbus A320-214(WL), was delivered to Discover Airlines (4Y) on March 17.

🇵🇦 HP-9817CMP, a Boeing 737 MAX 8, was delivered to Copa Airlines (CM) on March 18.

🇺🇸 N8997Q, a Boeing 737 MAX 8, was delivered to Southwest Airlines (WN) on March 17.

🇧🇪 OO-SBG, an Airbus A320-251neo, was delivered to Brussels Airlines (SN) on March 18.

LATEST AIRCRAFT RETIREMENTS

🇪🇸 EC-NVP, a Boeing 737-8AS with Air Europa (UX), was withdrawn from use (wfu) and ferried on March 9 to Caude, Spain (CDT) for storage.

🇮🇳 VT-JRT, an Airbus A320-216 with Air India Express (IX), was wfu and ferried on March 18 to St. Athan, Wales (DGX) for part-out and scrap.

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Unruly Passengers 2026: 312
As of March 15, 2026
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Aviation Safety & Security

A coalition of major U.S. airline CEOs urged Congress to end the recurring disruption caused by government shutdowns by ensuring aviation workers such as TSA screeners, air traffic controllers, and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) personnel are paid consistently. The letter argues that unpaid federal workers are driving long security lines, delays, and operational strain, and calls for immediate funding of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) along with passage of legislation to guarantee stable aviation funding going forward.

TSA SICK CALLS: TSA reported a slight improvement in staffing on Tuesday, with national sick calls easing to 9.88 percent from Monday’s shutdown high of 10.22 percent, though still running nearly five times above normal levels. Operational strain remains acute at several major airports, with Houston Hobby (HOU) again leading at 40.8 percent of officers out, followed by New Orleans (MSY) at 35.8 percent and Atlanta at 34.6 percent, where wait times again exceeded one hour. Additional pressure points included New York JFK (JFK) at 30.1 percent, Pittsburgh (PIT) at 29.1 percent, and Houston Intercontinental (IAH) at 28.3 percent, with checkpoint closures reported at Atlanta and Philadelphia (PHL) due to staffing shortages. Nearly 370 screeners have already quit since the current shutdown began on February 14; the agency lost over 1,100 screeners during and after the record 43-day shutdown in October/November 2025.

EDITOR’S NOTE: As I curate these reports on the shutdown’s impact, I am also living it. Like many of the personnel mentioned above, I am currently again performing my duties as a TSA foreign inspector without pay.

Separately, Atlanta is now providing TSA screeners two meal vouchers each shift, along with free parking and free tickets for MARTA transportation.


Aviation Industry News

We begin with a tip of the Stetson to Munich Airport (MUC), which welcomed its one billionth passenger earlier this week. The airport opened on May 17, 1992, and now hosts 100 airlines flying to over 230 destinations in 70 plus countries.

Scandinavian Airlines (SK) has announced it will implement a "temporary price adjustment" and cut a limited number of flights in response to a sudden, sharp spike in jet fuel costs. The Scandinavian carrier is particularly vulnerable to this volatility as it moved to a non-hedged fuel strategy last year, leaving it fully exposed to market swings. Jet fuel prices have reportedly doubled in Europe and surged by nearly 80 percent in Asia following the escalation of the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. SAS noted that the magnitude of the increase made immediate operational reactions necessary to maintain financial stability, joining other major carriers like Delta Air Lines (DL), Air France (AF), and KLM Royal Dutch Airlines (KL) in passing these ballooning costs directly to consumers through higher fares and surcharges.

U.S. scheduled-service passenger airlines employed 552,682 workers in January 2026, or 54 percent of the industry-wide total. Passenger airlines lost 845 employees in January 2026.

Taiwan’s China Airlines (CI) has scaled back a previously disclosed Airbus order, trimming its commitment from five A350-900s and eight A321neos to three A350-900s and just two A321neos. The airline cites “strategic factors” behind the revision, with the A350-900 deal value reduced to about $1.2 billion from nearly $2 billion. Notably, the carrier is pivoting toward larger widebody capacity, having separately approved acquisitions of A350-1000s, 777-9s, and 777 freighters, signaling a shift toward long-haul growth and fleet upgauging despite the narrower short- and mid-haul order cuts.

FIRST AIRBUS A220 HULL LOSS: Latvian flag carrier Air Baltic (BT)has written off an Airbus A220-300 (YL-AAO) after a June 2025 maintenance incident in Riga (RIX), where a fire broke out during a routine auxiliary power unit (APU) ground test, causing severe heat damage to the fuselage and wing root. Investigators traced the source to the aircraft’s ozone filter system, and a subsequent engineering assessment determined the jet was beyond economic repair, marking the first hull loss of the A220 program. The aircraft was insured and under lease, with the loss handled through a $33.4 million insurance claim.

Air Baltic flew 312,200 passengers last month, its busiest February on record and an eight percent year-on-year increase. The airline filled just under 76 percent of seats on 3,114 flights. Separately, the carrier has canceled all flights to Dubai (DXB) through the end of October as the Iranian conflict continues on.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), the average U.S. domestic air fare decreased to $370 in the third quarter of 2025. This represents a 4.7 percent decline from the inflation-adjusted average of $388 recorded in the second quarter of 2025. When viewed in a broader historical context, the Q3 2025 average of $370 is down 41 percent from the inflation-adjusted peak of $648 seen in the first quarter of 1999. Even in unadjusted terms, the current average remains significantly lower than the record high of $402 reached in the second quarter of 2014.

These figures, based on a 10 percent sample of airline tickets, include the total ticket value with all taxes and carrier fees paid at the time of purchase, though they exclude optional post-purchase costs like baggage or seat assignments. The data also highlights a continuing shift in airline business models; during the first nine months of 2025, passenger fares accounted for only 74.3 percent of total operating revenue. This is a notable decrease from 1990, when fares made up 88.5 percent of revenue, as airlines continue to rely more heavily on ancillary fees and other diverse revenue streams.

With oil prices often being the "make or break" variable for thin-margin carriers, could a sustained conflict with Iran be the death knell for the U.S. budget sector?

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Irish lessor AerCap has placed a major order for 100 Airbus A320neo-family aircraft, reinforcing its position as the world’s largest aircraft leasing company and signaling continued confidence in narrowbody demand. The deal includes a mix of firm orders and exercised options, with deliveries set to begin in 2028, and is closely tied to fleet renewal and growth plans at Frontier Airlines (F9). While AerCap did not disclose a firm contract value, a transaction of this scale would typically exceed $5 billion at list prices, underscoring sustained leasing demand for next-generation, fuel-efficient single-aisle aircraft.

SWISS International Air Lines (LX) will cancel 326 flights during the 2026 summer schedule as the carrier continues to grapple with pilot shortages and fleet constraints, highlighting ongoing operational strain within the Lufthansa Group. The cuts, representing a small portion of total capacity, are being driven by a lack of cockpit crew tied up in retraining programs, alongside aircraft availability issues, including multiple grounded jets due to engine problems. The reductions are expected to impact both short-haul and long-haul operations, as the airline prioritizes schedule stability during the peak travel season.

The Cathay Group reported strong February 2026 traffic, carrying more than 3.2 million passengers across its airlines, with Cathay Pacific (CX) transporting 2,558,431 passengers at an 85.6 percent load factor, while HK Express (UO) carried 730,402 passengers with an 86.2 percent load factor, reflecting robust Lunar New Year demand and continued recovery across both full-service and low-cost segments. 

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The proposed $1.5 billion merger between Allegiant Air (G4) and Sun Country Airlines (SY) has cleared a major regulatory hurdle following antitrust clearance from the Department of Justice (DOJ). On March 16, 2026, the DOJ granted early termination of the waiting period under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Act, signaling a smooth path forward for the deal first announced in January 2026. This combination unites two profitable, leisure-focused carriers with complementary networks and minimal route overlap, creating a stronger competitor with over 650 routes and a combined fleet of approximately 195 aircraft.

Under the agreement, Sun Country shareholders will receive $4.10 in cash and 0.1557 shares of Allegiant common stock for each share held, resulting in Allegiant shareholders owning roughly 67 percent of the merged entity. While the transaction still requires approval from the Department of Transportation and the shareholders of both companies, it is currently on track to close in the second or third quarter of 2026.

Data aggregator Cirium has released its monthly on-time performance results for airlines around the world in February. Let’s have a look at the most on-time airlines in the Latin America and Africa/Middle Eastern regions.

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🇹🇷 Passenger traffic totals for airports across Türkiye for January 2026 are as follows below.

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Incidents

An Australian national has been arrested on a federal criminal complaint charging him with assaulting a TSA screener at Los Angeles (LAX), the Justice Department announced Tuesday.

Thomas Jesse Bingham, 35, of Melbourne, Australia, is charged with assault on a federal officer. He was arrested Monday at LAX. 

According to the complaint and affidavit, on March 15, the victim – an on-duty, uniformed TSA officer – was leaving a restroom located in the sterile area connector between Terminals 6 and 7 at LAX. Upon exiting, Bingham – who was then booked on a flight from Los Angeles to Las Vegas – approached the victim and accused him of taking his backpack and passport. Bingham then forcibly assaulted the victim by grabbing the victim’s uniform, pulling the victim’s TSA identification lanyard off his neck, grabbing and pulling the victim’s hair, and pushing him into a glass wall.

The victim later reported experiencing pain in his hand and back and sought medical evaluation. Airport police arrested Bingham, whose carry-on bag and passport were later located at a restaurant in Terminal 7 that he previously visited. Bingham later was released from custody and on Monday was arrested at LAX prior to boarding a flight to the United Kingdom.

All defendants are presumed innocent until proven guilty beyond a reasonable doubt in a court of law. If convicted, Bingham would face up to eight years in federal prison.

A Delta Air Lines flight from Seattle (SEA) to Taiwan (TPE) was forced to divert to Anchorage (ANC) after a passenger allegedly harassed crew members, used racial slurs, and made threats mid-flight, prompting a cockpit lockdown and escalation to a high-level onboard disturbance. According to a Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) affidavit filed in the U.S. District Court for Alaska, Malcom Martin allegedly threatened crew members, used racial slurs, and interfered with flight operations, prompting a cockpit lockdown and diversion. He has been charged with interfering with flight crew members and attendants, a federal offense that carries a maximum penalty of up to 20 years in prison.


Air Cargo

On Monday, Atlas Air Worldwide (5Y) sent shockwaves through the industry by announcing a landmark firm order for 20 Airbus A350F freighters, with options for an additional 20 aircraft. This historic agreement marks the first time in the company’s history that it has ordered non-Boeing aircraft for its frontline fleet, effectively ending its status as an all-Boeing operator. The deal positions Atlas as the global launch customer in the Americas and the largest customer for the A350F type worldwide.

The transition is a strategic move to secure early delivery slots in a tightening widebody market, with the first aircraft scheduled to arrive in 2029 and deliveries continuing through 2034. Powered by Rolls-Royce Trent XWB-97 engines, the A350F offers a 111-tonne payload capacity and a 4,700-nautical-mile range. Atlas CEO Michael Steen noted that the A350F’s superior fuel efficiency (expected to reduce emissions by up to 40 percent compared to older models) and its compliance with 2027 ICAO CO2 standards were decisive factors in the selection over the delayed Boeing 777-8F.

Escalating conflict in the Middle East is significantly disrupting global airfreight networks, as widespread airspace closures and operational suspensions at key Gulf hubs force airlines to reroute flights and reduce capacity. The disruption is tightening available lift on major trade lanes, particularly Asia–Europe, driving sharp increases in freight rates and adding volatility to already strained supply chains. With both aviation and maritime routes affected, logistics providers are facing higher costs, longer transit times, and growing uncertainty around global cargo flows.

U.S. cargo airlines employed 471,876 workers in January 2026, or 46 percent of the industry-wide total. Cargo carriers lost 14,192 employees in January 2026. FedEx (FX), the leading air cargo employer, decreased employment by 14,486 jobs.

📈 Flightline Financials 🏦

Airline & Airport Operator Stock Prices
Closing Price: March 18, 2026
AAL
American
$10.80
AERO
AeroMexico
$13.32
ALGT
Allegiant
$77.19
ALK
Alaska
$37.88
BA
Boeing
$205.99
CPA
Copa
$110.26
DAL
Delta
$63.81
EMBJ
Embraer
$58.91
JBLU
JetBlue
$4.06
LTM
LATAM
$48.58
LUV
Southwest
$40.19
RJET
Republic
$16.52
RYAAY
Ryanair
$59.80
SNCY
Sun Country
$15.99
SKYW
SkyWest
$88.96
UAL
United
$92.51
ULCC
Frontier
$3.10
VLRS
Volaris
$7.16
WTI OIL
Per Barrel
$99.46
ASR
Asur
$320.70
OMAB
OMA
$108.49
PAC
GAP
$233.01
CAAP
Corp America
$24.81
Global Currency Exchange Rates
$1 USD Equals:
EUR
Euro
0.87
GBP
British Pound
0.75
MXN
Mexican Peso
17.87
CAD
Canadian Dollar
1.37

Daily Passenger Counts at U.S. Airports, 2026 vs. 2025

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